沪深300股指期货升水率/贴水率月度平均统计表, 数值大于0时升水, 数值小于0是贴水。 

月份当月期货升水率下月期货升水率下季度期货升水率隔季度期货升水率
2010041.10%2.15%4.08%6.11%
2010050.75%1.77%3.37%5.00%
2010060.54%1.11%2.09%3.64%
201007-0.03%0.48%1.37%2.85%
2010080.21%0.65%1.84%3.05%
2010090.38%0.75%1.58%2.72%
2010101.30%2.16%3.37%4.78%
2010110.49%2.10%3.91%5.34%
2010120.56%1.66%3.06%5.08%
2011010.23%0.96%2.20%4.11%
2011020.17%0.87%2.64%3.92%
2011030.24%0.71%1.71%2.89%
2011040.21%0.69%1.62%2.89%
2011050.08%0.48%1.65%3.15%
2011060.04%0.29%0.99%2.50%
2011070.10%0.45%1.28%2.73%
201108-0.04%0.27%1.24%2.52%
2011090.06%0.25%0.59%1.55%
2011100.06%0.24%0.62%1.48%
2011110.19%0.42%1.16%1.71%
2011120.34%0.71%1.38%2.18%
2012010.39%0.89%1.42%2.22%
2012020.15%0.57%1.38%2.36%
2012030.25%0.68%1.22%2.33%
2012040.10%0.56%1.15%2.28%
201205-0.25%-0.13%0.61%1.69%
201206-0.10%-0.17%0.16%1.12%
2012070.43%0.78%1.45%2.62%
2012080.44%1.00%2.25%3.56%
2012090.41%1.01%2.04%3.54%
2012100.27%0.84%1.92%3.33%
2012110.13%0.57%1.78%2.96%
2012120.29%0.76%1.61%2.59%
2013010.20%0.72%1.44%2.40%
2013020.16%0.69%1.52%2.39%
2013030.05%0.25%0.49%1.11%
201304-0.14%-0.23%-0.26%0.22%
201305-0.43%-0.80%-0.36%0.52%
201306-0.76%-1.05%-0.65%0.43%
201307-1.13%-1.84%-1.82%-1.29%
201308-0.14%-0.26%-0.06%0.33%
2013090.03%0.16%0.49%1.12%
201310-0.07%-0.05%0.21%0.60%
2013110.15%0.13%0.53%0.59%
2013120.52%0.76%1.11%1.28%
2014010.34%0.62%1.01%1.19%
201402-0.28%-0.14%-0.09%-0.05%
201403-0.84%-1.27%-1.90%-2.61%
201404-0.02%-0.40%-1.14%-1.44%
201405-0.27%-0.77%-0.97%-0.54%
201406-0.24%-0.41%-0.10%0.55%
201407-0.19%-0.14%0.18%0.75%
2014080.21%0.54%1.14%1.97%
2014090.26%0.58%1.09%1.90%
2014100.13%0.34%0.80%1.21%
2014110.13%0.46%1.13%1.29%
2014120.78%2.02%3.03%3.65%
2015010.15%1.29%2.60%3.40%
2015020.45%1.27%2.66%3.32%
2015030.18%0.74%1.42%1.82%
201504-0.08%0.20%0.20%0.64%
2015050.46%0.25%0.16%0.84%
201506-0.32%-0.51%-0.38%0.05%
201507-2.82%-4.41%-5.33%-5.10%
201508-3.26%-5.69%-8.82%-9.34%
201509-3.24%-6.78%-10.86%-12.79%
201510-2.33%-5.08%-8.23%-10.86%
201511-1.57%-4.12%-7.53%-9.96%
201512-1.18%-2.95%-5.32%-8.55%
201601-1.68%-3.86%-7.71%-12.15%
201602-1.22%-3.24%-8.14%-13.47%
201603-1.07%-2.87%-5.70%-10.64%
201604-0.82%-2.20%-4.87%-8.40%
201605-0.79%-2.13%-5.35%-7.90%
201606-1.12%-2.45%-3.86%-5.82%
201607-0.90%-1.94%-3.67%-5.85%
201608-0.51%-1.26%-2.76%-3.98%
201609-0.54%-1.45%-2.64%-4.48%
201610-0.38%-1.18%-2.45%-4.63%
201611-0.28%-0.98%-2.77%-4.64%
201612-0.55%-1.22%-2.22%-3.84%
201701-0.32%-0.81%-1.62%-3.07%
201702-0.44%-0.93%-2.21%-3.69%
201703-0.45%-1.11%-2.21%-4.35%
201704-0.29%-0.83%-1.81%-3.43%






 在2015年6月以前的62个月里,沪深300股指期货只有17个月处于贴水状态, 其它45个月都处于升水状态,升水概率是72%。 在股灾发生以后, 由于政策限制等因素, 股指期货一直处于深度贴水状态,近期的贴水率向正常水平回归。


按照一般经验,在正常市场情况下, 当股息率小于现金收益率时, 股指期货处于升水状态, 股息率大于现金收益率时, 股指期货处于贴水状态。 目前沪深300的加权平均股息率是2.4%, 而余额宝的收益率是4%, 股息率小于现金收益率,所以股指期货在未来的贴水率有可能继续向升水的方向回归。 这使得股指对冲策略更容易获得较好的正收益。